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First, actual bond prices are summarized by interpolated synthetic zero-coupon yields, and second, a small set of these yields are used as the source data for further empirical examination.

In contrast, we consider the advantages of a one-step approach that directly analyzes the universe of bond prices.

Overall, the results indicate that both the productive capacity of an economy and the distribution of income matter for financial stability.

Financial crises are born out of prolonged credit booms and depressed productivity.

Those who were recently employed are twice as likely to find a job as those who report wanting a job.

In environments where households repay mortgages gradually, surprise interest hikes only weakly influence household debt, and tend to increase debt-to-GDP in the short run while reducing it in the medium run.We model commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as the less informed source of credit.In equilibrium, these investors fund properties with a low probability of distress and banks fund properties that may require renegotiation.Sustained periods when the real interest rate remains below the central bank's estimate of r-star can induce the agent to place a substantially higher weight on the deflation equilibrium, causing it to occasionally become self-fulfilling. In model simulations, raising the central bank's inflation target to 4% from 2% can reduce, but not eliminate, the endogenous switches to the deflation equilibrium. All of these developments may have contributed to an unusual buildup of financial instability.I solve for the time series of stochastic shocks and endogenous forecast rule weights that allow the model to exactly replicate the observed time paths of the U. This paper explores the contribution of each of these three developments in explaining financial crises using long-run historical data for 17 advanced economies.Using our proposed approach, we reexamine the unemployment duration distribution and current approach to misclassification error in the CPS.

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